Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 10.155352 11.914882 13.838828 16.092193 18.652150 21.462984 24.775587
2025-01-12 7.205299 9.535138 12.343510 15.947278 20.415056 25.736023 32.512709
2025-01-19 5.415962 7.963453 11.302606 15.927243 22.082327 29.899982 40.472160
2025-01-26 4.612872 7.408812 11.336071 17.120228 25.261311 36.127951 51.507451
2025-02-02 3.909971 6.808393 11.141832 17.881021 27.838074 41.704296 62.094982
2025-02-09 3.362418 6.307528 10.968020 18.576757 30.308455 47.257204 73.010764
2025-02-16 2.789250 5.635896 10.399818 18.552444 31.645061 51.225746 81.900587
2025-02-23 2.253362 4.909128 9.609517 18.034974 32.110610 53.870604 88.960090
2025-03-02 1.797987 4.227014 8.773227 17.301839 32.104999 55.726735 94.876797
2025-03-09 1.517324 3.823099 8.360839 17.223366 33.128141 59.212051 103.468875
2025-03-16 1.262463 3.414030 7.868134 16.922506 33.712703 61.991019 111.068355
2025-03-23 1.155267 3.308153 7.949197 17.686589 36.211543 68.061037 124.305828
2025-03-30 1.009594 3.087021 7.775814 17.967962 37.916325 72.999121 136.142467
2025-04-06 0.863355 2.829958 7.487237 17.988252 39.146392 77.221559 147.074799
2025-04-13 0.740966 2.603088 7.226628 18.028889 40.409692 81.576668 158.483123
2025-04-20 0.713693 2.634541 7.566070 19.377819 44.327667 90.916621 179.037968
2025-04-27 0.659587 2.573964 7.675016 20.231756 47.321320 98.740305 197.310147
2025-05-04 0.606717 2.503404 7.747335 21.007795 50.210952 106.528151 215.893583
2025-05-11 0.524343 2.314030 7.484765 20.981842 51.431090 111.244103 229.149211
2025-05-18 0.433138 2.064171 7.016153 20.407195 51.430714 113.614257 238.204899
2025-05-25 0.349167 1.808496 6.480111 19.592222 50.822976 114.742844 244.975789
2025-06-01 0.300091 1.668519 6.248173 19.504987 51.806719 119.053196 257.936770
2025-06-08 0.251870 1.512526 5.937112 19.170331 52.193202 122.171170 268.745518